| Pssst...! Wanna know a craps secret?
How about the secret of the Gambler's Fallacy When you
are playing craps and a random shooter holds the dice, you might come
across an extraordinary occurrence. This random shooter may, for
example, throw four passes in a row. There are some bettors who may then
assume that the don't pass is now "due,' and will begin betting the dark
side.
In physics this process is called "Maturity of
Chances," and can occur for example, if someone flips a coin 1,000
times. According to the law of averages, it is assumed that
approximately 500 tosses will be heads and approximately 500 tosses will
be tails. If however, after 900 tosses, it may be discovered that there
are 600 heads and only 300 tails. Some people at that time might say
that tails are now "due," so the remaining 100 tosses will be mostly
tails.
If this was true it would mean that the coin has some
sort of innate intelligence and will determine its future behavior by
what has happened in the past. Given a very, very long run of coins (or
dice) it is probable that the heads and tails (or the pass and don't
pass) will sort itself out. But this will be done by chance and
circumstance, not by the determinate behavior of the coins or the dice.
If there is no way to deduce the outcome of a random roll of the dice,
then why play craps at all? The gambler's fallacy applies to randomness,
and is correct in stating that previous rolls of the dice have no effect
on future rolls. However, there is a method in use today to help us
predict the outcome of a non-random roll of the dice on a consistent
basis.
Wanna know the secret that craps pros use to overcome
the Gamblers Fallacy? Let's find out!
There are two kinds of Crapshooters - random rollers
and rhythm rollers. Random rollers are susceptible to the Gambler's
Fallacy, but rhythm rollers are not. When you are playing craps and a
rhythm roller holds the dice, you may also see four passes in a row. But
these are not completely random occurrences. A rhythm roller sets the
dice a certain way, grips them in a certain manner, and tosses them
precisely so they land and bounce together. Due to various table
conditions, this can't happen all the time, but even if the shooter
controls the dice for only 1-2% of his throws, it is enough to overcome
the house's slim edge on many bets - and produce a non-random
occurrence.
By observing the shooter's results, you may see a
pattern develop, which you can use to latch on to his long roll. And the
next time he shoots, be prepared to back him up with big bets. Don't be
surprised if he rolls the same numbers (for example, fours and tens)
every time he shoots. This is his own personal shooting "signature," and
you should always be on the lookout for one! Rhythm rollers are experts
at what they do because of their knowledge, training and experience. It
is not easy to control the dice and not many people can do it. But it is
possible, so you might want to move from table to table to find a good
shooter.
Once you find one, you should keep betting on him as
long as he bets on himself. There is no gambler's fallacy to deal with
because these are not random rolls, but trained rhythm rolls. The next
time you play be on the lookout for rhythm rollers - the best way to
increase your profits! Pssst...! Now you know the secrets of the
Gambler's Fallacy! |