Craps A to Z - "G" is for "Gambler's Fallacy"

by Larry Edell, published on Tuesday, December 4 2001

These bettors have succumbed to what is often referred to as the Gamblers Fallacy. In physics this term is called “Maturity of Chances,” and can occur for example, if someone flips a coin 1,000 times. According to the law of averages, it is assumed that approximately 500 tosses will be heads and approximately 500 tosses will be tails. However let’s say that after 900 tosses, 600 were heads and only 300 were tails. Some people might say that tails are now “due,” so the remaining 100 tosses will be mostly tails. If this were true, it would mean that the coin has some sort of innate intelligence and can determine its future behavior by what has happened in the past. Given a very, very long run of coins (or dice) it is probable that the heads and tails (or the pass and don’t pass) will sort itself out. But this will be done by chance and circumstance, not by the determinate behavior of the coins or the dice at any point in time. If there is no way to deduce the outcome of a random roll of the dice, then why play craps at all? The gambler’s fallacy applies to randomness, and is correct in stating that previous rolls of the dice have no effect on future rolls. But, is there some method in use today to help us predict the outcome of a NON-random roll of the dice on a consistent basis? Let’s find out! There are two kinds of Crapshooters - random rollers and rhythm rollers. Random rollers are susceptible to the Gambler’s Fallacy, but rhythm rollers are not. When you are playing craps and a rhythm roller holds the dice, you may also see four passes in a row. But these are not completely random occurrences. A rhythm roller sets the dice a certain way, holds them in a certain manner, and tosses them precisely so they land and bounce together. Due to various table conditions, this can’t happen all the time, but even if the shooter controls the dice for only 1-2% of his throws, it is enough to overcome the house’s slim edge on many bets - and produce a non-random occurrence. By observing the shooter’s results, you will soon see a pattern develop and have the opportunity to latch on to his long roll. And, the next time he shoots, be prepared to back him up with big bets. Don’t be surprised if he rolls predominately the same numbers (for example, fours and tens) every time he shoots. This is his own personal shooting “signature,” and you should always be on the lookout for one! Rhythm rollers are experts at what they do because of their knowledge, training and experience. It is not easy to control the dice, and not many people can do it. But it is possible, so you might want to move from table to table to find a good shooter. Once you find one, you should keep betting on him as long as he bets on himself. There is no gambler’s fallacy to deal with because these are not random rolls, but trained rhythm rolls. So, you no longer have to wonder if there is some method to predict future rolls based on previous rolls - Now you know! And, as always, good luck at the tables!