Craps - Double Odds - Any advantage in the long run?

by Larry Edell, published on Wednesday, October 3 2001

On the pass line, you can win with the seven or eleven, without a point being established. The seven can be rolled six ways, and the eleven two ways, so you will win 8 of 36 times on the pass line, or, 2/9 of the time.You will lose on the pass line with a 2, 3 (twice) or 12, so you lose 4 of 36 times, or 1/9 of the time. This means that 1/3 of the time, the bet is decided without a point, as 1/9 (losing) plus 2/9 (winning) equals 3/9 or 1/3. The other 2/3 of the time a point is rolled (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10). Therefore, when you place odds after the point is established, you will do so in only 2/3 of the rolls. You, of course, have a choice of placing one-times odds or two-times odds in most casinos, after the point is established. Single odds does really decrease the house edge, from 1.4% down to .85%. And double odds reduce the edge further, down to .61%. However, your expected dollar loss (and the casino's gain) will, unfortunately, remain the same. Lets look at three different players. Player one bets 100 $10 bets on the pass line with no odds. Player two bets 100 $10 bets with single odds. Player three bets 100 $10 bets with double odds. Who will come out ahead? Lets look at the math. Player one (betting no odds when a point is established) puts $1000 in action and his expected loss rate is 1.4%, or a total of $14, over a course of 100 rolls. Player two has single odds on all points (which, remember, occur 2/3 of the time). So he bets $1000 (1/3 of the time no point is established), plus 2/3 of $1000 odds when the point is established ($666), or a total of $1666. The house edge on a passline bet with single odds is .85%, multiplied by $1666 is, surprisingly, $14. Player three places double odds on each point (2/3 of the time). So he had $1000, plus 2/3 of $2000, a total of $2,333 bet. The house edge on a passline bet with double odds is .61%. $2333 x .61% is, surprise again, $14. The lesson here is to always take odds, but only if you can afford them. Betting double odds will reduce the house edge. But it will also increase your money in play, and therefore your expected total loss (and the total casino's gain) remains the same. If you do bet double odds and win, of course you will win more than if you bet single odds, or no odds at all. But even when you make more of a profit, the casino's edge (and it's profit) will stay the same. And, as always, good luck at the tables!